Risk assessment and analysis of Traditional Chinese Medicine intervention in coronavirus disease

doi:10.19852/j.cnki.jtcm.20220408.001

Abstract

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE: To explore the advantages of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in "prevention" and "control" of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS: In this paper, we wish to estimate the effect on the virus transmission of scenarios assuming TCM were used to build the first defense line at the very early stage of the spread in Wuhan. We therefore first developed a classic susceptible infected removed (susceptible infected removed, SIR) transmission model based on the national data in China and then updated it to a TCM-SIR model to assess the potential impact of such assumptions, i.e. the underlying risk of lives lost and social economy loss.

RESULTS: (a) With the nationwide community lockdown, the risk value was from 90 000 to 250 000 without TCM intervention and the risk value was from 70 000 to 220 000 with TCM intervention; (b) Based the risk assessment method, we forecasted that the infections peak would be 58016 without TCM intervention, which happened on February 17 2020. However, the infections peak would be 45713 with TCM intervention, which happened on 16 February 2020.

CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of nationwide community lockdown is conducive to timely control the epidemic and protect people's lives and safety. At the same time, we can get lower infections if TCM intervention can be considered. We can also get the benefits from TCM prevention of COVID-19 pandemic by the basic number of infections.

Key words: COVID-19, medicine,Chinese traditional, risk assessment, public health

ZHAO Yufeng, PANG Huaxin, Lü Lanting, ZHOU Pei, WANG Kaining, CAI Shengxing, ZHANG Huifeng, LI Kun. Risk assessment and analysis of Traditional Chinese Medicine intervention in coronavirus disease[J]. Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 2022, 42(3): 472-478.

Figures/Tables 5

References 20

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Premier risk assessment	Quarantine measures	TCM intervention	Risk assessment with intervention	Advantages	Limitation
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients at home		I (max) = 250 000 R = 1.9
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients at home	Y	I (max) = 220 000 R = 1.6	Economy relatively stable	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients' families		I (max) = 230 000 R = 1.65
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients' families	Y	I (max) = 200 000 R = 1.47	Economy less affected but relatively stable	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of children at home after school closure		I (max) = 180 000 R = 1.35
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of children at home after school closure	Y	I (max) = 150 000 R = 1.26	Economy affected	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of the senior over 70 years old		I (max) = 160 000 R = 1.3
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of the senior over 70 years old	Y	I (max) = 120 000 R = 1.1	Economy greatly affected	People's lives in relative danger and regional medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Regional or national communities lockdown		I (max) = 90 000 R = 0.82
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Regional or national communities lockdown	Y	I (max) = 70 000 R = 0.73	Economy greatly affected	People's lives in relative protected and safe, medical resources in short supply only in severe areas

Premier risk assessment	Quarantine measures	TCM intervention	Risk assessment with intervention	Advantages	Limitation
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients at home		I (max) = 250 000 R = 1.9
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients at home	Y	I (max) = 220 000 R = 1.6	Economy relatively stable	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients' families		I (max) = 230 000 R = 1.65
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Quarantine of infected patients' families	Y	I (max) = 200 000 R = 1.47	Economy less affected but relatively stable	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of children at home after school closure		I (max) = 180 000 R = 1.35
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of children at home after school closure	Y	I (max) = 150 000 R = 1.26	Economy affected	People's lives in great danger and national medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of the senior over 70 years old		I (max) = 160 000 R = 1.3
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Isolation of the senior over 70 years old	Y	I (max) = 120 000 R = 1.1	Economy greatly affected	People's lives in relative danger and regional medical resources in short supply
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Regional or national communities lockdown		I (max) = 90 000 R = 0.82
I (max) = 300 000 R = 2.2	Regional or national communities lockdown	Y	I (max) = 70 000 R = 0.73	Economy greatly affected	People's lives in relative protected and safe, medical resources in short supply only in severe areas

Item	China	Wuhan	Ot-Pro	Ot-City
R_mean	2.27	2.43	1.79	2.19
R_std	2.22	4.23	1.76	2.44
R_CI_95%	1.96, 2.57	1.85, 3.01	1.55, 2.03	1.85, 2.53

Item	China	Wuhan	Ot-Pro	Ot-City
R_mean	2.27	2.43	1.79	2.19
R_std	2.22	4.23	1.76	2.44
R_CI_95%	1.96, 2.57	1.85, 3.01	1.55, 2.03	1.85, 2.53

Item	100	500	1000	2000
R_mean	2.23	2.28	2.29	2.28
R_std	2.41	1.79	0.81	0.81
R_CI_95%	1.76, 2.70	2.12, 2.44	2.25, 2.35	2.24, 2.32

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