Advanced Search

Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine >

2022 , Vol. 42 >Issue 3: 472 - 478

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19852/j.cnki.jtcm.20220408.001

Research Article

Risk assessment and analysis of Traditional Chinese Medicine intervention in coronavirus disease

  • Yufeng ZHAO ,
  • Huaxin PANG ,
  • Lanting Lü ,
  • Pei ZHOU ,
  • Kaining WANG ,
  • Shengxing CAI ,
  • Huifeng ZHANG ,
  • Kun LI
Expand
  • 1 Data Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China
    2 School of Computer and Information Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Bejing 100044, China
    3 School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Bejing 100872, China
    4 Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China
    5 Vice President, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China
LI Kun, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China. kunlee_bj@163.com;Telephone: +86-10-64089654; +86-10-64089779
ZHAO Yufeng, Data Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China. snowmanzhao@163.com;

Received date: 2021-08-19

  Accepted date: 2021-11-11

  Online published: 2022-04-08

Supported by

“CACMS Innovation Fund : Research and Application of Multi-source Heterogeneous Database Integration Method Based on Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network”(CI2021A05042);“Fundamental Research Funds for the Central public welfare research institutes: Method research on TCM Clinical big data.”(Z0688)

Fold

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To explore the advantages of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in "prevention" and "control" of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS: In this paper, we wish to estimate the effect on the virus transmission of scenarios assuming TCM were used to build the first defense line at the very early stage of the spread in Wuhan. We therefore first developed a classic susceptible infected removed (susceptible infected removed, SIR) transmission model based on the national data in China and then updated it to a TCM-SIR model to assess the potential impact of such assumptions, i.e. the underlying risk of lives lost and social economy loss.

RESULTS: (a) With the nationwide community lockdown, the risk value was from 90 000 to 250 000 without TCM intervention and the risk value was from 70 000 to 220 000 with TCM intervention; (b) Based the risk assessment method, we forecasted that the infections peak would be 58016 without TCM intervention, which happened on February 17 2020. However, the infections peak would be 45713 with TCM intervention, which happened on 16 February 2020.

CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of nationwide community lockdown is conducive to timely control the epidemic and protect people's lives and safety. At the same time, we can get lower infections if TCM intervention can be considered. We can also get the benefits from TCM prevention of COVID-19 pandemic by the basic number of infections.

Key words： COVID-19; medicine,Chinese traditional; risk assessment; public health

Cite this article

Yufeng ZHAO , Huaxin PANG , Lanting Lü , Pei ZHOU , Kaining WANG , Shengxing CAI , Huifeng ZHANG , Kun LI . Risk assessment and analysis of Traditional Chinese Medicine intervention in coronavirus disease[J]. Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 2022 , 42(3) : 472 -478 . DOI: 10.19852/j.cnki.jtcm.20220408.001

References

1 WHO. Cumulative number of reported probable cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). 2020-02-23. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/en/.
2 The Asian Development Bank. SARS: economic impacts and implications. 2020-02-23. https://www.adb.org/publications/sars-economic-impacts-and-implications.
3 Ren PH, Li ZQ, Zhu HP, Wang P, Qiu ZN, Zhang ZM. The rule of TCM treatment for Corona Virus Disease 2019 based on the theory of pestilence. Jinan Da Xue Xue Bao (Zi Ran Ke Xue Yu Yi Xue Ban) 2020; 41: 144-50+162.
4 Shi ZF, Dai QG, Zhong CM, Zhang XY, Zhao C, Shang HC. The qualitative research of the prevention and treatment of traditional Chinese medicines on Corona Virus Disease 2019 using software Nvivo. Jinan Da Xue Xue Bao (Zi Ran Ke Xue Yu Yi Xue Ban) 2020; 41:163-74.
5 Zou L, Yu X, Wu YQ, Sun D, Wu YG, Fang H. Analysis and thinking on Traditional Chinese Medicine in preventing and treating severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Shanghai Zhong Yi Yao Da Xue Xue Bao 2020; 34:11-6.
6 Zhang LL, Li C, Li J, et al. Experience in Treating COVID-19 by Stages. Zhong Yi Yao Xin Xi 2020; 37:17-20.
7 Kumar A, Goel K, Nilam. A deterministic time-delayed SIR epidemic model: mathematical modeling and analysis. Theor Biosci 2020; 139:67-76.
8 Qun L, Daqing J, Tasawar H, Ahmed A, Bashir A. A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with logistic growth and general nonlinear incidence rate. Physica A 2020; 551.
9 Elazzouzi A, Lamrani Alaoui A, Tilioua M, Tridane A. Global stability analysis for a generalized delayed SIR model with vaccination and treatment. Adv Differ Equ 2019; 2019:532.
10 Kermack WO, Mckendrick A GA. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. P Roy Soc A-Math phy 1927; 115:700-21.
11 Liu WL, Li XC, Zhang Y, et al. Thoughts on Traditional Chinese Medicine treatment of COVID-19 in Liao Shen area. Shanghai Zhong Yi Yao Za Zhi 2020; 54: 27-9+35.
12 Yu XY, Xu YL, Li XJ, Yang PY, Zhang X, Jia YJ. Analysis of TCM prevention and control measures for lung cancer patients under novel coronavirus epidemic situation. Tianjin Zhong Yi Yao 2020; 37:1213-6.
13 Ni GH, Wang YG, Shaanxi plays the role of traditional Chinese medicine in epidemic prevention and control. Zhong Yi Yao Guan Li Za Zhi 2020; 28:86.
14 Zhang BL. What role has Chinese medicine played in the prevention and treatment of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Study Times, 2020-03-18. cited 2021-05-30; 9: 34 screens. Available from URL: http://www.satcm.gov.cn/xinxifabu/meitibaodao/2020-03-18/14043.html.
15 Yang FG, Huang M, Zhang JH. Advantages of the treatment with Traditional Chinese Medicine on novel coronavirus neumonia outbreak: academician Zhang Boli answered authoritatively. Tianjin Zhong Yi Yao 2020; 37:363-4.
16 Dean of Santai County Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province LU Wenhua. Traditional Chinese Medicine to Build “Firewall” to Fight Epidemic in Online Domain. Health Newspaper, 2020(005).
17 Qin YH. Give Full Play to the characteristic advantages of Traditional Chinese Medicine and firmly win the fight against epidemic situation. Hunan Daily, 2020-02-20. cited 2021-05-30; 9: 50 screens. Available from URL:https://news.hnucm.edu.cn/info/1018/9737.htm.
18 Xia WG, An CQ, Zheng CJ, et al. Clinical Observation on 34 Patients with Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19) Treated with Intergrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine. Zhong Yi Za Zhi 2020; 61:375-82.
19 Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 92:214-7.
20 Wu JT, Kathy L, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet 2020; 395:689-97.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉